2013年10月17日 星期四

Iron Ore futures debut in China. An alternative carry trade?


Iron Ore futures debut in Dalian Commodity Exchange (18 Oct 2013)

 

Dalian in China launched the first physical Iron Ore futures.  Making a difference to the cash settled index based contracts listed in CME, Singapore Exchange and Intercontinental Exchange.  China is the biggest user of Iron Ore and 74.6 million tons of Iron Ores were imported in September according to a Bloomberg article.

 

Market participants are observing how Dalian Commodity Exchange handles the physical settlement.  The standard is supposed to be 62% iron content but in real life, every piece of ore will have some difference in Iron content.

 

Local Iron Ore miners in China see this physical settled contract as a new way to sell their stock.  Currently, big buyers of Iron Ores like State owned Enterprises are asking for 60 – 90 days payment terms from miners.  Funding is tight in China in general as banks are not willing to lend.  Everyone remembers the liquidity squeeze in June and the coming December yearend will be very tight.  Some miners, who are keen to get liquidity, are willing to sell iron ores at a discount for cash upfront.  The discount could be as steep as 5%.  Now this is before the Dalian physical settled contract.  If the physical settlement process is smooth, there is a carry trade angle to buy physical from miners today and sell futures to hedge.  Assuming the physical goods meet the settlement standard and delivery process is tidy, there could be room for arbitrageurs.

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